State Election 2010

[Aidan]

It's going to be a sea of cranes on the Riverside foreshore with the new Royal Adelaide Hospital, Convention and Exhibition Centres, Medical Research Institute, and Torrens footbridge in the coming years.

We have a bright future ahead of us.

Do you think a sea of cranes equates a bright future? I think a much brighter future comes form building the right things in the right places.

[cruel_world00]

Four more beers.... four more beers.... four more beers.

[rhino]

Hooraaaaayyyy!

A special thankyou to Stephen Griffiths for admitting that there will not be a $1 billion saving until at least 2016 if the Libs re-build the RAH. I wonder if it was a slip or if hHooraaaaayyyyyyy!is concience finally got to him.

[rhino]

Funny that - when our local council was small, the services were better and the costs were lower, but still people keep telling me bigger councils are better and cheaper.

Were the services really better? If so, how?

The two that really stand out are the road maintenance and the roadside mowing. I live on an unsealed road, which was maintained more often and kept in better condition under the old small council than under the current large one. Road verges were mowed 3 times a year. I maintain the council land in front of my property, but I'm surrounded by farmers, who don't. Now we get a once-a-year cut, one blade-width wide. The guy who does it has suggested we complain to council about it - he even told us to photograph our young son standing next to the grass that was taller than him, and write to council about the snake and fire hazards they are condoning. Then he told us that over Stirling way the verge-mowers are instructed to mow fence-to-fence.
Another one is the Dump, which was oh-so convenient under the old council, but is now shut, so that even the dumping of soil must be paid for at the waste transfer station.
When I drew the plans for my house (I'm an owner-builder), I had a lot of help from the council engineers, but when I drew the plans for my extension, the new council was nowhere near as helpful - they gave me a sample of what was expected and suggested I get a professional to do it. (I didn't, and they did get passed, just for the record).
And though we were told that rates would be capped for two years after the merge, they certainly shot up a long way as soon as the honeymoon was over!

[Aidan]

Hooraaaaayyyy!

A special thankyou to Stephen Griffiths for admitting that there will not be a $1 billion saving until at least 2016 if the Libs re-build the RAH. I wonder if it was a slip or if hHooraaaaayyyyyyy!is concience finally got to him.

Even if you like Mike, I'm puzzled as to why you think that's worth celebrating - it's still a billion dollars. Or if the Libs underestimated what has to be done, at least a few hundred million dollars set to be wasted.

So why the applause?

[rhino]

Because I'm happy. I like where the Labor Party has taken this state. I'm not a huge Mike fan at all, but in my view, we go forward with Labor, we stagnate under the Libs. That's my view. If you disagree, I don't really care. We won.

[yousername]

Because I'm happy. I like where the Labor Party has taken this state. I'm not a huge Mike fan at all, but in my view, we go forward with Labor, we stagnate under the Libs. That's my view. If you disagree, I don't really care. We won.

[Norman]

I'm glad that Labor has won, Isobel is just not experienced enough with this to take on the role as premier, and her team isn't too flash either. People went with what's worked in the past, and that's the ALP. I'm glad Lomax-Smith is gone though!

[AtD]

It's the morning after and neither the news media nor the parties themselves have "officially" called it. So I thought I'd have a look at where the marginal counts are.

The ABC is saying, at 72.9% counted and only postal votes left to go:
25 ALP seats
18 Liberal
4 Independents

As 24 seats are required for victory, the ALP need to lose at least two of those seats to not be able to form majority government.

Right now there are four seats with a Two Party Preferred margin of less than 53.0%, but one of them (Mt Gambier) is a battle between the Liberals and an Independent and has no bearing on the ALP's chances at this stage.

So looking at the other 3 seats:

Code: Select all

Counted  Counted  Esimated ALP TPP  Lib TPP  Margin  Margin   Lib   Postals   ABC's       ABC's TPP
% reg     Votes   Postals   count    count    TPP    % TPP   Swing  Required  Prediction  Prediction

--- BRIGHT
  71.0    16,733   5,020    7,931    7,887     44    50.1    +6.5   50.9%    ALP retain    50.4

--- HARTLEY
  70.4    15,632   4,863    7,571    6,707    864    52.5    +3.1   67.8%    ALP retain    52.5

--- NEWLAND
  74.6    17,049   4,045    8,543    7,686    857    52.6    +2.5   71.2%    ALP retain    52.8

Using the result of the 2006 election, I've assumed that there's a 92.3% participation rate. Using that I've predicted how many postal votes are to come in (Estimated Postals)
The column to look at is Postals Required, the TPP result required from the estimated postals due to throw out the ALP.

As you can see, Bright is in play and needs just 50.9% of the postals to be in the Liberal's favour to oust the ALP. No one would rule out Bright changing hands. However, Hartley and Newland look like an impossible ask for the Liberals, requiring 68% and 71% respectively of the postals in the Liberals' favour.

Postals typically favour the ALP. I assume the ABC have used the last election's postals for their TPP predictions.

Therefore I see it unlikely that the ALP will lose two more seats and not be able to form majority government. If that did happen, they need to court just one of the four likely independents to form minority government.

So while no news media have called it, I think it's a foregone conclusion.

[Swordsedge]

The good news just keeps getting better.

Attorney-General Michael Atkinson to quit front bench
Greg Kelton From: The Advertiser March 21, 2010 10:34am

Atkinson: 'I made the wrong decision'

TROUBLE-plagued Attorney-General Michael Atkinson is expected to announce within the next few minutes that he will not recontest the ministry, following the State Election.

Mr Atkinson is expected to announce he will go to the back bench and remain the member for Croydon.

Atkinson, who was first elected to Parliament in 1989 , made the shock announcement outside a Prospect church just after 10.30am today.

Mr Atkinson, 51, has been a lightning rod for most of the major problems to have hit Labor in the past two terms.
He has been dogged by a string of controversies - think Internet censorship, stashed cash, Ashbourne-Clarke and the senior magistrate defamation case.

[Nort]

The best outcome of this election (assuming the article can be believed):

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/attorney- ... 5843341005

TROUBLE-plagued Attorney-General Michael Atkinson is expected to announce within the next few minutes that he will not recontest the ministry, following the State Election.

Mr Atkinson is expected to announce he will go to the back bench and remain the member for Croydon.
Atkinson, who was first elected to Parliament in 1989 , made the shock announcement outside a Prospect church just after 10.30am today.

Mr Atkinson, 51, has been a lightning rod for most of the major problems to have hit Labor in the past two terms.
He has been dogged by a string of controversies - think Internet censorship, stashed cash, Ashbourne-Clarke and the senior magistrate defamation case.

edit: SWORDSEDGE!!!

[Howie]

edit: SWORDSEDGE!!!

edit: Shuz?

[Norman]

With Atkinson and Lomax-Smith out, I'm a very happy chappy

[Aidan]

Because I'm happy. I like where the Labor Party has taken this state. I'm not a huge Mike fan at all, but in my view, we go forward with Labor, we stagnate under the Libs. That's my view. If you disagree, I don't really care. We won.

It was also my view not long ago, but haven't you noticed Labor are getting more like the Liberals? It used to be that when the government made a bad decision, the Liberals stuck to their guns whereas Labor backed down in the face of public opposition. Now Labor are trying to force their bad decisions on us. And the spin continues - on the radio this morning I heard Labor denying the swing away from them had anything to do with their RAH plan. Just what will it take to make them realise how insane it is?

Try looking at it another way:
We go forward fastest with a hung parliament, we stagnate with a strong government, regardless of which party it is.

[jk1237]

I know I shouldn't have read the posts on Adelaide Now, but aparently half of the state is moving to the eastern states because Labor look like winning. WTF. Ive never seen more pathetic posts by such pathetic people