OK, politics... What next?

[stumpjumper]

I know not everyone here is interested in state politics, but I am, especially in relation to development around here...

While the ‘development climate’ is largely influenced by factors external to the state (despite what local politicians might say), state politics has a lot to do with development at a lower level - what is approved and in what shape it’s approved.

So with that justification, I hereby make a Nostradamus-like prediction regarding Labor’s plans for the future government of SA.

First, the Libs would like to see Rann and Foley in power right to the next election. In the Libs’ opinion, these two are votewinners (for the Libs) and the longer they stay the less settled any successors will be by election time.

Rann wants to stay at least until next year, when he outdoes John Bannon as SA’s longest serving Labor Premier.

Foley would like to stay, but his super is looking better than his reputation and if it’s all too hard he’ll shoot through, probably to the USA.

This leaves Labor, in other words the Labor Right faction’s Don Farrell, with a few decisions.

Any new crew at the top will have to be installed around 18 months or so this side of the election. Doing so would allow enough time for an effective charm offensive and the spending in marginal seats of the nest egg Foley has been acquiring with his early-in-term ‘horror budgets’.

The main problem for Farrell is that the Right has the numbers (116-61 at the recent conference) but no money (except Michael O’Brien’s lavish donations), while the Left has plenty of money (a lot of it collected using the leverage of the unions), but not the numbers.

So, what to do?

This is what Jay Weatherill and Peter Manilauskas (SA ‘Shoppies’ head and Don Randall’s deputy in SA) were discussing, deliberately publicly at Chianti Classico over the weekend. It was a good look – Labor Right and Labor Left in conference over our future government, with a front page picture in the Advertiser to prove it.

I suggest that the most likely outcome of such talks is Weatherill of the Left as Premier and a woman from the Right – Grace Portelesi (wife of Miles Kemp of the Advertiser) as Deputy Premier. Weatherill has a local problem in that he was elected in 2002 on a platform of 'Only I can save the Cheltenham Racecourse from redevelopment into housing by the Liberals', but he should be able to overcome that.

That stacks up well against the Liberals’ Isobel Redmond/Mitch Williams combination. Michael O’Brien would be Treasurer, ensuring that the Right had the chequebook.

So Rann stays until he has his record then goes ‘home’ to Puglia; Foley clears off to the USA, and the new generalissimos paddle like ducks to endear themselves to the voters before the election, promising a fresher, more caring government while acknowledging the wonderful achievements of the Rann years, despite the Rann government tiring, as all governments do etc .

So the new team will try to separate itself from any shortcomings of the previous government, like Gillard did from Rudd, and hope that we buy it.

That’s my take, anyway.

Unless the Liberals get in.

[ricecrackers]

Rann and Foley both look tired
Labor needs new energy

they fell in at the last election because the opposition offered nothing
now i fear the nothing opposition will fall in at the next election and we will be the losers for it

[stumpjumper]

Fair comment, ricecrackers. A vote against a party rather than for another is a pretty feeble vote.

Maybe Dean Jaensch is right - our system has the basic flaw that it doesn't attract pre-selectees (of any persuasion) of sufficient calibre to make good politicians. On the other hand, there was a period in ancient Greece when government was by 100 citizens selected from the masses by lot. The idea was that while you perhaps missed out on the best and brightest, you were also likely to miss out on the cunning self-servers. The people got average capability and average honesty, which could be more than we're getting now.

All I ask for is honest, competent government. Both sides here are basically social democrats, despite their Left and Right labels, so a good Labor government is probably better than a bad Liberal government, for example, and vice versa.

Given our present system, the selection of ministers is sometimes determined by factors other than suitability for the particular position. For example the Libs persevered with the strange idea that Transport and Arts were somehow linked. I think it had something to do with Murray Hill doing both jobs, so his protegé Di Laidlaw had to have both jobs as well. Allegedly, to take either from Di would have upset her father, Lib stalwart Don. Ridiculous, and nothing to do with suitability for either ministry. Labor is similarly hog-tied by the demands of the factions for balanced treatment - again, that could cost us a highly capable pair of hands for one ministry or another. The Libs have factions too, of course. It seems that we're stuck with them in both parties.

What's the solution? Transparency is a partial answer, so that a minister who is struggling can be seen by the electorate to be struggling. That would encourage the government to do something about it in order to maintain votes. So then we need a reliable media...

[Will]

Mike Rann and Kevin Foley are out of touch and out of control.

Labor has become so arrogant that they fail to see why voters are abandoning them in droves and jumping to the Greens. The reason is obvious. The Labor party is suppossed to support people who work. However, their recent actions such as their mean and tricky budget cuts, their broken promise of 'no more privatisations' and now their abandonment of the principle of universal health care suggest that they should rename the party to "commerce" instead.

I for one will not vote for them in 2014, unless they get rid of their current neo-liberal leadership and return to what the are supposed to do.


From the Advertiser:

Public goes private

Health Reporter Tory Shepherd From: The Advertiser December 09, 2010 10:23PM

WHY you'll pay up to $200 more for health services.

Allergy, cardiac, gastroenterology, breast surgery and general surgery outpatient services are among those set to be privatised from next year, according to documents and the Public Service Association.

The State Government says it will save $11 million and cut waiting lists by shifting outpatient services to GPs and private specialists for consultations, and that it only cost patients only around $60. Doctors and unions say it will push patients into an already full private sector and make them pay a gap of up to $200.

PSA general secretary Jan McMahon said the Government was now outsourcing basic health services.

"Outsourcing clinics' functions will make healthcare more expensive," she said.

"Treasurer Kevin Foley may save the Government money, but it will cost SA families more."

Outpatient services listed for outsourcing also include dermatology, neurology, respiratory and rheumatology, clinics that service tens of thousands of people a year.

Australian Medical Association state president Dr Andrew Lavender said the private sector would not cope with the influx of public patients, many of whom are more complex cases that will be referred back to public hospitals for treatment anyway.

"There is no capacity to see them. This is a pure cost-shifting exercise," he said, adding that in NSW, where a similar situation exists, patients generally pay between $100 and $200 for their initial consultation.

"Even a $100 co-payment can be a barrier to access," he said, adding it was a "purely political" move.

The Royal Australasian College of Surgeons said the Government decision was "effectively abandoning the principle of free healthcare being available at our state's public hospitals".

A spokeswoman for Health Minister John Hill said the reform would reduce waiting times for an appointment with a specialist, and would affect fewer than 10 per cent of outpatient appointments.

"Already over the past year outpatient visits have declined by 5.7 per cent - with no impact on staffing levels, or services," she said.

"The gap fee for a consultation with a specialist who does not bulk bill is expected to be in the order of $60 and the referring GP will be able to choose a specialist who bulk bills, as well as taking other factors into consideration such as location."

[Aidan]

Rann and Foley both look tired
Labor needs new energy

they fell in at the last election because the opposition offered nothing
now i fear the nothing opposition will fall in at the next election and we will be the losers for it

I disagree with your reasoning. Offering nothing would be far preferable to what both parties did offer.

When Labor want to waste billions moving a hospital, the Libs tried to match the stupidity with grand plans for high density development on what seemed like every spare bit of land the government owned and some they didn't.

Rann wants to outdo John Bannon and he probably will - but the RAH move is set to be his State Bank collapse.

Bannon was a fairly good Premier... except for the one huge mistake of losing track of the state's finances. After that, people hated the SA Labor Party. But then after the Libs sold ETSA, people despised them more, so they voted Rann in. The Libs seem to be basing their plans on the assumption that the public are starting to loathe Labor. But even if that's true, it won't stop the damage.

[Omicron]

Mike Rann and Kevin Foley are out of touch and out of control.

Labor has become so arrogant that they fail to see why voters are abandoning them in droves and jumping to the Greens. The reason is obvious. The Labor party is suppossed to support people who work.

Like economists, stockbrokers and investment bankers?

[Will]

Mike Rann and Kevin Foley are out of touch and out of control.

Labor has become so arrogant that they fail to see why voters are abandoning them in droves and jumping to the Greens. The reason is obvious. The Labor party is suppossed to support people who work.

Like economists, stockbrokers and investment bankers?

cruising around Sydney Harbour eating caviar and champagne whilst deciding export more jobs to some third world country to increase your profits is not real work.

[Omicron]

Mike Rann and Kevin Foley are out of touch and out of control.

Labor has become so arrogant that they fail to see why voters are abandoning them in droves and jumping to the Greens. The reason is obvious. The Labor party is suppossed to support people who work.

Like economists, stockbrokers and investment bankers?

cruising around Sydney Harbour eating caviar and champagne whilst deciding export more jobs to some third world country to increase your profits is not real work.

That sounds marvellous! Count me in.