Driverless Cars

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Wayno
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Driverless Cars

#1 Post by Wayno » Wed May 20, 2015 1:09 pm

Recently I believe the SA State Govt passed a law allowing driverless/autonomous vehicles. At the time i thought that was a quirky announcement - but i'm all turned around on the topic.

The needed technology already exists and many manufacturers are expected to provide such cars within the next few years. Also seems auto-manufacturers are worried about the potential BIG decline in sales - think 40+%, because of this revolution.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/innov ... 7360344191
Driverless cars will be here by 2020, if the government allows them, Nissan boss says

NISSAN will have vehicles packed with autonomous driving technology by 2020, but whether people will be able to drive them on roads is up to government regulators, its chief executive Carlos Ghosn says.

Many of the world’s carmakers and companies outside the auto industry (such as Google) are working on technology that allows cars to navigate without human intervention.

Ghosn said good progress was being made toward the Japanese automaker’s goal of delivering a driverless car by 2020.

“Our cars will be ready,” he said.

The biggest hurdle for such vehicles becoming readily available to consumers is approval from regulators around the world, he told reporters at Yokohama headquarters.

Ghosn said autonomous driving was sure to be part the future because that was what consumers wanted. He said consumers also demanded zero, or very low, emissions as well as connectivity — the means to access the internet, to watch movies and to duplicate in their vehicle the same experiences a person had at home or in the office.

Nissan has committed to developing electric cars, rather than invest in other technology, in its bid for a zero emission vehicle.

Currently, Nissan produces the Leaf electric car, but also uses hybrid technology in vehicles like its luxury arm Infiniti’s Q50.

Ghosn said Nissan saw autonomous vehicles as adding to driving pleasure. While Nissan could end up producing a totally driverless car, that was not the automaker’s immediate goal.

“That is the car of the future,” he said. “But the consumer is more conservative. “That makes us cautious.”

Tesla’s Model S will be one of the first cars to see something close to autonomous driving through a software update due to be released this year. The update will give the car the ability to drive itself on highways without any input from the driver, however it won’t be able to drive you home after a few drinks from the local pub.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he believed fully-autonomous cars were only a few years away.

Speaking earlier this year at the GPU Technology Conference in California, he said: “Autonomy is really about what level of reliability and safety do you want. Even with the current sensor suite, we could make the car go fully autonomous, but not to a level of reliability that would be safe in, say, a complex urban environment where children are playing,” Musk said.

“I almost view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we’ll be there in a few years.”
More reading on this topic.

http://www.driverless-future.com/?cat=26
Imagine a future without congestion, car crashes, smog, or road rage. It’s coming sooner than you think. Summoned with an Uber-like smartphone app, driverless cars will revolutionize transportation. For less than bus fare you’ll enjoy the quiet, comfortable door-to-door service you’d get from a personal chauffeur. A chauffeur that is never distracted, never tired or testy, and always knows the fastest and safest route to get you where you’re going. No cash, no tipping, no crowds, no congestion – just hop in, enjoy the ride, hop out, and be on your way. These cars will be electric: quiet, clean, and so safe that deaths and disabilities will be rare. Instead of dealing with road rage and the frustration of bumper-to-bumper traffic, you’ll be free to text, Facebook with friends, or get a head start on your workday. Since you can cut your cost in half by riding with another passenger, seamlessly arranged by your mobility provider, traffic congestion will slowly fade away.

Owning a car means car payments, insurance, registration, maintenance, gas prices, smog, tickets, accidents, finding parking, and dealing with the stress of traffic. Buying miles instead of metal means you’ll save thousands a year for your dream vacation, the kids’ college education, or buying a home of your own. In addition to lowering stress and regaining the use of 5% of your waking hours, putting an extra $5,000 a year in people’s pockets will compel this change.

Driverless Car Revolution explains the benefits for people of all ages, from kids through seniors, plus the disabled, the working poor, tourists and other special groups. The book also discusses the economic disruption of major industries as well as potential geopolitical upheavals – all the pieces of the puzzle, and how they fit together.

Fasten your seatbelt, engage, and prepare to join the Driverless Car Revolution.
I see a few governmental $$$ conundrums:
* Speeding fine revenue will steadily decrease
* Road funding (through car registrations, etc) will steadily decrease, but people will still demand more roads
* GST and other taxes from car sales will steadily decrease

Lots more interesting reading on the web. This will come faster than we think.
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Re: Driverless Cars

#2 Post by SouthAussie94 » Wed May 20, 2015 2:14 pm

Really interesting topic!

I understand that speeding fine revenue will decrease with the coming of driverless cars, but why would revenue from registration and GST income from car sales decrease?

Would the registration revenue be associated with CTP insurance?

Would car sales decrease? Would the desire to have the latest and greatest car still exist?
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Re: Driverless Cars

#3 Post by Llessur2002 » Wed May 20, 2015 2:48 pm

I think the article suggests a move away from personal car ownership and towards use of a shared car fleet which can be scheduled or on-demand - something like a driverless Uber network. I think this is how things worked in that film Minority Report:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vrxyr1CjiSM

...presumably it'll take a couple more years of development before the cars drive vertically up the face of buildings though...

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Re: Driverless Cars

#4 Post by Wayno » Wed May 20, 2015 4:16 pm

Yep, initially a move towards households having one car, and hiring a driverless instead of owning a 2nd car. Over time more households will not own cars at all.

In Adelaide I envisage this adding momentum to inner-city apartment boom. Save $5,000 on car ownership costs and instead use that to help pay your inner-city apartment (or cottage) rent or loan. As a city resident I already save $30 weekly (petrol) from not driving so much.

I imagine these driverless cars could be placed conveniently around the city, similar to the existing GoGet arrangement. The ACC will love it as it reduces the need for on-street parking, and builders will like it as they'll not need to provide so many car parks per apartment complex. The ACC could even offer a rate reduction incentive to households that don't have a car!

Many win-win situations abound!
Llessur2002 wrote:...presumably it'll take a couple more years of development before the cars drive vertically up the face of buildings though...
True, but a driverless car could be called and waiting for you outside your apartment elevator! :-) More like the bat cave.
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Re: Driverless Cars

#5 Post by Llessur2002 » Wed May 20, 2015 4:25 pm

I love this idea - I used to enjoy driving but over the years it's lost its appeal.

Contrary to the article's suggestions, I won't be using the technology to "text, Facebook with friends, or get a head start on my workday". I will be using the technology to snooze more...

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Re: Driverless Cars

#6 Post by rev » Wed May 20, 2015 4:57 pm

Image

You're dreaming if you think driverless cars will replace currernt vehicles in our life time, if ever. Why? Because the consumer doesn't want it. This April nearly 100,000 new cars have been sold, that's a record for April sales. New car sales overall annually are on an upward trend. Over 1 million new cars were sold in 2014. This year is also on track to break 1 million new car sales. Month for month so far compared to 2014, sales are up continuously.

Sure, there might be a new "cruise control" feature where the car is automated beyond what we have now with setting the speed, and through a host of high tech and high powered advanced sensors and cameras alerts the driver in time to retake control of the vehicle or brings the vehicle to safe stop on the side of the road. But this technology will never be the norm on our roads in any of our life times.

There might be use of small automated "pod" type vehicles, perhaps on dedicated 'lines', or lanes, around airports for example, or linking airports to CBD's, or within CBD's to get around. Maybe even a taxi service in metro areas using this technology. Which could eventually lead to it being adopted by us plebs replacing our current vehicles.
In fact instead of a tram line, I think this would be an innovative way to "put us on the map", for the state government and Adelaide Airport to work together on making this a reality sooner rather then later, and before it happens elsewhere in Australia. Imagine an automated pod vehicle network to the existing public transport networks.

Also Mercedes have developed a truck that can be put into autonomous mode and have tested it, and one of the company's head honchos or engineers responsible for it, tested it out. Should be a video of it on YouTube.

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Re: Driverless Cars

#7 Post by Wayno » Wed May 20, 2015 6:26 pm

rev wrote:You're dreaming if you think driverless cars will replace currernt vehicles in our life time, if ever. Why? Because the consumer doesn't want it.
rev wrote:But this technology will never be the norm on our roads in any of our life times.
Rev, broad brushed 'black vs white' statements such as these add no value. What a cross-section of consumers value today may not correlate to what they value tomorrow.

Google’s self-driving Toyota Prius has logged hundreds of thousands of miles without incident on California roads. That's on a combination of highway and urban streets.

The technology is being driven hard by car manufacturers fearful of being left behind if they don't get on the bandwagon.

I do like the idea of driverless trams, although it requires government spend which is a tough ask. Also requires unions to agree with fewer public service jobs. hmmmm.
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Re: Driverless Cars

#8 Post by realstretts » Wed May 20, 2015 8:39 pm

rev wrote:Image

You're dreaming if you think driverless cars will replace currernt vehicles in our life time, if ever. Why? Because the consumer doesn't want it. This April nearly 100,000 new cars have been sold, that's a record for April sales. New car sales overall annually are on an upward trend. Over 1 million new cars were sold in 2014. This year is also on track to break 1 million new car sales. Month for month so far compared to 2014, sales are up continuously.

Sure, there might be a new "cruise control" feature where the car is automated beyond what we have now with setting the speed, and through a host of high tech and high powered advanced sensors and cameras alerts the driver in time to retake control of the vehicle or brings the vehicle to safe stop on the side of the road. But this technology will never be the norm on our roads in any of our life times.

There might be use of small automated "pod" type vehicles, perhaps on dedicated 'lines', or lanes, around airports for example, or linking airports to CBD's, or within CBD's to get around. Maybe even a taxi service in metro areas using this technology. Which could eventually lead to it being adopted by us plebs replacing our current vehicles.
In fact instead of a tram line, I think this would be an innovative way to "put us on the map", for the state government and Adelaide Airport to work together on making this a reality sooner rather then later, and before it happens elsewhere in Australia. Imagine an automated pod vehicle network to the existing public transport networks.

Also Mercedes have developed a truck that can be put into autonomous mode and have tested it, and one of the company's head honchos or engineers responsible for it, tested it out. Should be a video of it on YouTube.
Wait, did you not read the quote from Nissan high ups?

"Ghosn said autonomous driving was sure to be part the future because that was what consumers wanted."

Would s/he make that statement if they had not done extensive market research? Or are you just happy to ignore it?

Or, perhaps, the claim is being made to induce demand for autonomous vehicles

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Re: Driverless Cars

#9 Post by rev » Wed May 20, 2015 10:16 pm

They can say what they want. Their job is to sell their products, and convince the buying public of their new products.
If driverless, autonomous, Google cars are what consumers want, why are sales up of the current non-autonomous variety cars? That would suggest to me that consumers are quite content with the technologies commonly available.
How often does the average person buy a new car? Every 5 years? 10 or 15 years perhaps? We wont see autonomous cars in that time.
We will probably see at least 20 more series of current models and new models, before we see the first large scale production of consumer available autonomous vehicles. Assuming a 'series' lasts about 3 years.

I'm not saying this technology won't become the norm. But I strongly doubt driverless, autonomous vehicles will be the majority on Australian roads in my life time.

And I think the higher ups of Nissan might find that many people might have a bit of a problem trusting their safety to an AI. An AI that's connected to the outside world and to the other AI's running vehicles around them. Especially if the recent story of an IT security expert hacking into a number of pasenger aircraft and having control of them at his finger tips proves true. :wink:

But hey, maybe I'm wrong. Certainly will be an interesting world we could be living in..or our kids and grandkids.
My main issue is customization on these autonomous vehicles...life just wouldn't be the same without hotted up and tuned cars :(

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Re: Driverless Cars

#10 Post by Wayno » Thu May 21, 2015 10:34 am

rev wrote:I'm not saying this technology won't become the norm. But I strongly doubt driverless, autonomous vehicles will be the majority on Australian roads in my life time.
I agree, and no one is saying the majority of cars will be autonomous in the near future - in any country. Also some cities will be more suited to such vehicles.

We'll see more of this sort of thing first - https://youtu.be/8x7MP2vjVbM (ref: http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/podcars ... tarchitect)
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Re: Driverless Cars

#11 Post by monotonehell » Thu May 21, 2015 10:45 am

It's an interesting topic, from technological, moral and legal aspects.

Technologically speaking, we're at least twenty years away from this working. Right now the demo tech looks good, but when you see the list of things that the tech can't deal with yet, you realise how far they have to go before this is a common sight. (things like, the streetscape has to be mapped in fine detail, way beyond what exists now, if it's raining the Google car can't 'see', roadworks, traffic incidents, there's a lot of conditions where the car will stop and ask for intervention)

Morally and legally speaking, things like in an accident how does the car choose who to kill and who to save? Then if that decision is made, who made it and who's culpable? The software engineer? The manager of the business unit? The company? The person 'not-driving'?

There's a lot to think about and the tech is far enough away for a calm discussion. It's VERY interesting.
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Re: Driverless Cars

#12 Post by rev » Thu May 21, 2015 2:23 pm

Definitely interesting.
What was that show about future tech that used to be on once a week? Beyond something?
I recall as a kid seeing one episode where they were talking about the use of nanotechnology in road infrastructure. Everything from the road surface it self to street lighting and traffic lights would incorporate nantotechnology, and we would have smart roads.
Not sure how far away that is, or if it will ever happen.
But what I envisage in my mind is the vehicles 'communicating' not only with each other but with the roads/infrastructure around them.

However implementing it would be hard without damaging the economy and productivity/efficiency. So I think this sort of technology, as far as the vehicles are concerned, would have to be phased over time.
While you could possibly redo the roads as smart roads, and allow regular vehicles to use them, you would still need autonomous vehicles to be able to be controlled by humans. They'd have to have extra sensors and whatnot to avoid collisions with regular vehicles as they wouldn't be 'communicating' with those non-smart/autonomous vehicles.

Take up would be slow, and I bet it would be expensive. So governments would need to provide strong incentives to encourage people to buy these new vehicles.


Cross country road trips would be interesting for sure though. Set your course, decide how many stops you want to make along the way, car pulls into a 'smart servo' and wakes you up.

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Re: Driverless Cars

#13 Post by monotonehell » Thu May 21, 2015 2:31 pm

rev wrote:...What was that show about future tech that used to be on once a week? Beyond something?..
In the '80s it was "Towards 2000" then later "Beyond 2000" more recently in 2005 it was rebooted and called "Beyond Tomorrow".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyond_Tom ... eyond_2000
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Re: Driverless Cars

#14 Post by Hooligan » Fri May 22, 2015 1:14 pm

Llessur2002 wrote: I won't be using the technology to "text, Facebook with friends, or get a head start on my workday". I will be using the technology to snooze more...

I'll be using it to get drunk more often.

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Re: Driverless Cars

#15 Post by Llessur2002 » Fri May 22, 2015 1:46 pm

Hooligan wrote:I'll be using it to get drunk more often.
Likewise.

And, without a driver, who'll be there to enforce the soiling charge?

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