Another widespread power outage in SA

[bits]

There appears to be no large scale plan by any state for new generation based on coal gas or nuclear. Sa's lifeline to Victoria is about to become more intermittent as they generate more power from wind. It is feasible when SE Australia is sitting under a large high pressure during winter and the sun is low in the sky, there will be little available capacity from wind or solar for days at a time. No amount of network rejigging can overcome a lack of generation, and therefore current renewable technology has been proven to be not up to the task of large scale industrial energy requirements. Not saying it never will, but ignoring what is happening will not help in the short term.

You still think SA currently lacks the ability to generate large amounts of power from gas and deisel sources. It does not lack the capacity to generate power, we have a framework and pricing system that leads to the current local generators to not run at capacity. Then depend on a network which fails at the drop of a hat.

Building another large scale base load will not mean the network operator ever turns it on until after a blackout occurs if at all.
Simply building a large power station does absolutely nothing to change what is the current problem.

If the price is cheaper from the Victorian or NSW coal, gas or wind it will be the source of power not your proposed new large scale base load generator in SA.

You need to change the pricing system to prefer local operators.
eg you could put some form of price on carbon that would instantly have the current much cleaner SA generators as cheaper.
But why not "just" disconnect from the national electricity network?
In the end that is what you want, to stop using the interstate power source regardless of price.

[monotonehell]

Absolutely. The implementation has been short sighted. Again - a network problem and a decision problem.

Unfortunately though, it would appear the "network" is being infiltrated by more and more wind and solar power without the technology to store excess power. The storm induced whole of state blackout could feasibly be blamed on multiple factors including the network and weather. The most recent blackout could not. A combination of no wind or sun (common during most nights) means SA had to rely on other base load sources. There appears to be no large scale plan by any state for new generation based on coal gas or nuclear. Sa's lifeline to Victoria is about to become more intermittent as they generate more power from wind. It is feasible when SE Australia is sitting under a large high pressure during winter and the sun is low in the sky, there will be little available capacity from wind or solar for days at a time. No amount of network rejigging can overcome a lack of generation, and therefore current renewable technology has been proven to be not up to the task of large scale industrial energy requirements. Not saying it never will, but ignoring what is happening will not help in the short term.

You do not seem to understand that the electricity supply is a market place by design. It's not a public utility. The Government aren't (currently) in charge of what gets turned on and when - the market is (although because of shortfalls they are starting to dictate that the gas fired stations have to be on no matter what the market is doing).

Price and supply determines what gets used. We don't have a supply problem, we have a network problem because of the artificial market and how it has been implemented.

[claybro]

If SA has to import almost half of its power from interstate, then clearly there is a supply problem. If gas fuelled generators need to be left idling to help prevent a shortage from wind and sola, then that would indicate to most fair minded people that the problem is with the intermittent generation of renewables. That the state with the largest mix of renewables, that draws more Imported power from another state than any other, is suffering the most blackouts, then the evidence on balance would appear to be the renewables causing the issues.

[Llessur2002]

If SA has to import almost half of its power from interstate, then clearly there is a supply problem. If gas fuelled generators need to be left idling to help prevent a shortage from wind and sola, then that would indicate to most fair minded people that the problem is with the intermittent generation of renewables. That the state with the largest mix of renewables, that draws more Imported power from another state than any other, is suffering the most blackouts, then the evidence on balance would appear to be the renewables causing the issues.

I think the point is that the state doesn't *have* to import power - it chooses to because it's cheaper to do so.

Keeping the gas plant idling is nothing to do with the intermittency of renewables - it's to mitigate against the failure of the interconnector, which was ultimately responsible for the blackout.

[SRW]

Truncating and repeating bits's relevant post from page 1:

SA's summer max peak demand was 3397MW on 31/01/2011. It had a high of 42.8C at Parafield Airport and was during a very long heat wave.

We have about ~3000MW capacity from the local gas/coal/diesel power stations. The remaining 400MW needs to be picked up between the 1,580MW wind, the SA portion (~200-400MW of 5,440MW solar and 870MW interconnectors.

Taking these figures as accurate, this shows what others have been saying. SA can mostly generate enough power from its own sources, but because we're part of a national market that prices power according to source, more often the market dictates that we import cheaper coal power than generate pricey gas power. That's why SA was advocating the Energy Intensity Scheme, to give preference to our gas plants over the east's dirty coal.

[mshagg]

If SA has to import almost half of its power from interstate, then clearly there is a supply problem. If gas fuelled generators need to be left idling to help prevent a shortage from wind and sola, then that would indicate to most fair minded people that the problem is with the intermittent generation of renewables. That the state with the largest mix of renewables, that draws more Imported power from another state than any other, is suffering the most blackouts, then the evidence on balance would appear to be the renewables causing the issues.

I think the point is that the state doesn't *have* to import power - it chooses to because it's cheaper to do so.

Precisely. AGL make bids into the NEM with power generated at torrens island but the price they want is too high relative to what is on offer from generators in the latrobe valley. I think there's some fairly bad faith behaviour from AGL who are exceptionally opportunistic and basically bend us over with pricing when there's a shortage (e.g. during planned maintenance on interconnectors). Although those spot prices are absorbed by the retailers, the contingency is ultimately reflected in our standing contract price per kw/h.

People crap on as if Jay personally went and threw the switch at Pt Augusta himself, the reality is those old clunkers werent able to competitively bid so who would want to pay to have them sitting idle?

In that sense having wind power which, whilst not as reliable, is there 'most of the time' and sends a definite price signal to AGL.

A system which captures the indirect cost of brown coal, whatever you want to call it, would alter the NEM dynamic markedly and very much in SA's favour (and therein lies the problem - who is going to sting 15 million people on the east coast to save our bacon?). Alternatively some sort of govt intervention to make gas power more competetive in the NEM could work, although im unsure of the NEM's rules about such subsidies (and ultimately it's the same source of money - us).

[rev]

So if we get power from interstate because it's cheaper, 1) why are we persisting with renewables which are more expensive and 2) if we are getting cheaper power from interstate why is the cost to consumers in this state the highest in the nation?

And it's going to go up by another $150.


At what FUCKING point will a government in this country step in and do something?

[Norman]

Renewable power is cheaper than fossil fuel power. It's just not available at its full capacity all the time. At times when the wind is blowing nicely, we have the cheapest power in the country.

[mshagg]

So if we get power from interstate because it's cheaper, 1) why are we persisting with renewables which are more expensive and 2) if we are getting cheaper power from interstate why is the cost to consumers in this state the highest in the nation?

And it's going to go up by another $150.


At what FUCKING point will a government in this country step in and do something?

As above i think you'll find the wind farms bid in to the NEM at a lower rate than either gas or coal generators. Makes sense given it's really only capex, maintenance and profit margin which needs to be covered - they dont pay for the wind. We cant rely completely on the interconnectors because they dont have the capacity to power the whole state. There is still gas in the mix.

The other variable is network costs, of which solar uptake plays a significant role in the cost. From ESCOSA in 2012:

The majority of the increase in network prices is due to the increased payments made by ETSA Utilities for energy exported by rooftop photovoltaic (PV) generators, under the State Government’s Feed - in Tariff scheme. That scheme has led to a significant increase in the uptake of solar panels in South Australia, and the cost of the scheme is effectively met by all electricity customers through higher network prices. The scheme led to an increase in the average household energy bill of approximately $6 in 2011/12. That amount has increased to around $110 in 2012/13, which represents around 7% of a typical household bill.

I cant speak to the structure of other states' markets, but I understand NSW are selling the poles and wires to pay for all of the tunnels they're digging, so it will be interesting to see how their prices move relative to ours.

[bits]

And just so we are all clear who paid what; every single wind farm in SA was subsidized through a federal government scheme not a state scheme.
So if wind were the problem the federal government created that problem and Malcolm is responsible for fixing that problem.

The other variable on network cost is SA is large but has a very small population that is spread all over.
Our network is massive compared to Victoria's, it costs more to build and maintain.

[monotonehell]

I think this thread illustrates the general ignorance (literal not pejorative) in most of the public who are screaming because the lights went out.

Near everyone is arguing as if the electricity supply was still a wholly government owned public utility. It's not, it's part free market (and all the pricing and supply problems that come with that), part monopoly, and it's part government regulated market.

There are some things that don't work well as a market place. A lot of types of necessary infrastructure fall into this camp. People expect things like roads, telecommunications backbones, water, sewerage and power to be reliable, consistent and reasonably priced (or free). It's time we started looking at pulling some of this back from the artificially created markets and monopolies that governments have created. And either throw parts to the free market proper and let them float, or make them public again.

[rev]

I think this thread illustrates the general ignorance (literal not pejorative) in most of the public who are screaming because the lights went out.

Near everyone is arguing as if the electricity supply was still a wholly government owned public utility. It's not, it's part free market (and all the pricing and supply problems that come with that), part monopoly, and it's part government regulated market.

There are some things that don't work well as a market place. A lot of types of necessary infrastructure fall into this camp. People expect things like roads, telecommunications backbones, water, sewerage and power to be reliable, consistent and reasonably priced (or free). It's time we started looking at pulling some of this back from the artificially created markets and monopolies that governments have created. And either throw parts to the free market proper and let them float, or make them public again.

I'm more angry at the fact we are paying the highest electricity prices in the country(and some of the most expensive in the world), and this so called national energy market couldn't even guarantee we had power, not once, but twice. When mother nature strikes you can't really blame this or that side of politics, and when events interstate(or overseas) happen again you cant blame any political side in your own backyard for adverse effects. Christ we had a series of tornadoes ripping up power transmission towers.
While we had gas power stations and is it a diesel one up north, that were sitting there collecting dust and looking all industrial pretty and shit.
Like the NSW Liberal government leader said, Weatherill is doing the best possible in the current difficult circumstances(in general). Like with our manufacturing industries going offshore because of globalization and international agreements and treaties, we are being held to ransom and it's none of it is to our benefit.

I don't understand how our own power generation is pushed aside for interstate power generation because interstate generation is cheaper then power generation in South Australia, but we still pay more for our electricity. Surely if it's cheaper, that should flow on to consumers?

Whats the regulator or ombudsman or whoever the hell is meant to be protecting consumers rights, doing?
Just like with the price of petrol, absolutely fucking nothing.

[mshagg]

Throwaway lines like "we have the most expensive power" don't necessarily capture the reality of the situation, although they come in handy for the PM when the SA premier is picking a fight with him at COAG.

If you're looking to have a bit of a sweary rant on a discussion forum, by all means indulge yourself. However if you're interested in actually understanding the situation there is volumes of information from market regulators on this stuff.

http://www.aemc.gov.au/Markets-Reviews- ... ice-Trends

National average consumption is 5,248kWh for a total $1507.

QLD: $1510 for 5173kWh. 29.2c/kWh
NSW: $1876 for 5936kWh. 31.6c/kWh
Vic: $1536 for 4025kWh. 38c/kWh
SA: $1811 for 5000kWh. 36.2c/kWh
Tas: $1821 for a whopping 8550kWh 21.3c/kWh
WA: $1319 for 5229kWh 25.2c/kWh (subsidized by WA govt).

The three cheapest states there have fully regulated pricing. One of them is literally subsidizing consumers to the point where they pay less than cost. For now - QLD and WA are moving to deregulate. NSW and Vic probably have more comparable market structures to SA.

Some other interesting points to note in the report being that the more you consume, the lower the effective price (presumably because the supply charge is fixed). e.g. in SA if your annual usage is 9500kWh the effective rate comes down to 29.38c/kWh... but you're spending $3k per annum on electricity. The same user in Victoria sees their effective price fall from 38 to 26c/kWh (so beware of cherry picking of figures).

I guess my point is, for all the bleating, all of the whiteanting of the government, all of the hysteria around renewables - our annual electricity spend is not leaps and bounds away from other states (and we are better placed to absorb the cost of carbon/energy intensity, if anyone can ever get their heads around it politically).

EDIT: Haha, crap. 2016 released yesterday. Havent looked at it yet, but the high level story is unchanged - high per-unit costs in SA, but not total bill - and other states are seeing costs catch up to ours at a rate of knots:

http://www.aemc.gov.au/Markets-Reviews- ... ice-Trends#

Solar feed in tarrifs continue to have a larger impact on our electricity prices than the investment in wind under the RET. So, probably have a go at your neighbour before you have a go at the wind farms lol.

[qgm]

More power outages in South Australia over the last couple of days. I went into the Haughton
Honda at Mile End on Tuesday and they had customers streaming in want to buy generators.

Time for Weatherill to resign. He is hopeless.

[bits]

300 power lines down and you blame the government..
maybe time to get your head out the sand.